Buying US dollars to invest in US stocks has transitioned from a "win-win" situation to a "double kill"!
Since the beginning of this year, the S&P 500 Index has fallen by 6%, but for investors in US stocks priced in euros and yen, due to the sharp decline of the dollar, their losses have ballooned to an astonishing 14%. The sharp turn and unpredictability of White House policies are causing unprecedented anxiety among investors who have long viewed the USA as the ultimate safe haven.
The USD has slightly increased, benefiting from the de-escalation of trade frictions and alleviated concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.
The US dollar showed a mild upward trend at the beginning of this week, supported by market expectations of easing global trade tensions and reduced risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve. Last week, President Trump announced progress in trade negotiations with Japan and clearly stated there was no intention to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
Trump's former economic advisor harshly comments on tariffs: By the end of May, the full impact will be seen, and the poor will suffer the most!
① Trump's former economic advisor Gary Conn's warned that the impact of the USA's tariff policy will begin to show at the end of May; ② He also pointed out that tariffs are highly regressive, with low-income earners paying more in tariffs while the wealthy are less affected.
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Airlines warn of uncertainty in the USA economy putting downward pressure on ticket prices.
This month, the CEOs of American Airlines issued a warning to Wall Street, stating that demand for domestic flights in the U.S. is lower than the high expectations set in early 2025. In a series of earnings conference calls, they indicated that there are many reasons for this, ranging from President Trump's erratic tariff policies to market turbulence, with the most significant factor being the uncertainty of the U.S. economy. Robert Isom, CEO of American Airlines, stated in Thursday's quarterly earnings call: 'When people are considering holiday plans and how to spend their hard-earned money, no one really likes uncertainty.'
As tariffs increase and concerns about recession grow, the lives of Americans are quietly changing.
A few weeks ago, when Kiki Rough became increasingly worried about the economic situation, she started reflecting on previous periods of economic hardship. During tough times associated with economic recessions, Rough recalls the skills she learned in making grocery items. Facing a similar uncertainty about the country's financial future, she began creating video guides showcasing recipes published during past economic downturns, depressions, and wartime. At 28 years old, she told her fans that she is not a professional chef but learned to cook by relying on food stamps. In her black and yellow striped kitchen in suburban Chicago, she teaches viewers how to prepare inexpensive meals.
The "Trump tariffs" changing from day to day have caused controversy? The U.S. Treasury Secretary says uncertainty is his strategy!
① The USA Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen defended Trump's tariff policy, describing it as "Global Strategy uncertainty"; ② He stated: "In game theory, this is referred to as 'Global Strategy uncertainty,' so you won't disclose to the other party in negotiations where you will end up. No one is better than President Trump at creating this kind of leverage."
Popular candidates for the Fed chairman criticize Powell, while BTC's weekly increase exceeds 12%, yet the funding rate remains negative.
Macro interpretation: Today is the weekend, and the market is relatively stable, but there have been some macro-level dynamics worth discussing, regarding the crisis of independence of the Federal Reserve, the regulatory vacuum, and the subtle changes in Bitcoin's technical form, together constructing a new narrative framework for the development of the crypto market.
Economic officials of "Trump 1.0" state that the impact of tariffs will become apparent nationwide by the end of next month, with the poorest suffering the most.
The former director of the White House National Economic Council stated that the "soft data" reflecting future expectations is weakening; before commodity prices rise due to tariffs, those with lower income levels or economic strength will use 100% of their salaries to purchase commodities, while the wealthy will save a higher proportion of their income, with the former being more severely impacted.
Asia Shares Edge Up; Dollar at Mercy of US Trade Whims
Foreigners are selling off dollar Assets! Morgan Stanley: But do capital have Other choices?
Morgan Stanley believes that concerns over tariff policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve are intensifying foreign investors' sell-off of USA Assets. However, considering that the current scale of the US bond market is as high as approximately 27 trillion dollars, its depth and liquidity far exceed that of other potential 'safe-haven' markets, and the lack of alternatives of comparable scale and liquidity makes it difficult for foreign investors to withdraw en masse from the US bond market.
The US dollar will continue to depreciate! Goldman Sachs: It will not be until mid-May or early June that the negative impacts on the USA economy will become significant.
Goldman Sachs believes that early purchases by USA consumers may boost consumer spending data for March and part of April, a phenomenon that has already started to show. At the same time, weak hiring is more likely to be a key variable in the job market than mass layoffs, which means that unemployment claims data may not be as indicative as usual.
Next week's important schedule: USA and Europe Q1 GDP, USA non-farm employment, China PMI, Buffett Shareholders' Meeting, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon Earnings Reports.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. will hold its Shareholder Meeting, Meta will host its first AI Developer Conference, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, and Japan and the USA may engage in a second round of negotiations. In terms of data, pay attention to the USA and Eurozone's Q1 GDP, the USA's April non-farm payroll report, March's PCE price index, and China's April manufacturing PMI. Regarding Earnings Reports, focus on Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Pfizer, Eli Lilly and Co, Coca-Cola, Kweichow Moutai, and others.
Bank of America Hartnett: Sell US stocks at highs, Buy Gold at lows.
Hartnett pointed out that as the "American exceptionalism" shifts to "American denialism," funds are flowing from the USA market to other regions, especially the Emerging Markets and Europe. Based on expectations of continued US dollar depreciation, increased market uncertainty, and rising demand for safe-haven assets, Hartnett remains Bullish on Gold.
The "Trump recession" has sparked a new trend in USA Social Media: learning how to survive tough days.
① As Trump imposed tariffs that impacted Global trade and the economy, Consumer panic about "an impending recession" reached its peak in recent years; ② In the face of economic uncertainty, many netizens have started to pay attention to posts on Social Media that teach "survival tips during a recession"; ③ American internet users have also discovered that due to the surge in living costs in recent years, the "money-saving tips" from more than a decade ago may no longer be effective today.
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JPMorgan survey: The market widely predicts that the USA will fall into stagflation, and the dollar continues to weaken.
The survey released by JPMorgan on Friday shows that the market generally believes that the risk of stagflation in the USA over the next year is much higher than the risk of recession, while the most Bullish asset class for 2025 is Cash; Most respondents believe that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the most negatively impactful policy on the USA.