UBT Proshares Trust Proshares Ultra 20+Yr Treasury
- 17.300
- +0.190+1.11%
Tesla welcomes a major policy package: the USA plans to relax regulations on autonomous driving.
On April 25, reports stated that the USA government will relax regulations on autonomous driving, reducing the originally cumbersome accident reporting process, allowing non-commercial test vehicles to skip certain compliance procedures. This move is seen as the USA's largest deregulation regarding autonomous driving, directly addressing the core demand for Tesla, and giving the green light for Musk's plan to launch the Cybercab autonomous taxi fleet in Texas this June.
Did Trump's "surrender" have a lot to do with the "U.S. debt vigilantes"?
Under the strong pressure of US Treasury yields soaring to 5%, the "Bond vigilantes" successfully "forced a halt" to Trump's tariff policy. Trump admitted: "The bond market is very tricky, I have been monitoring it." Ed Yardeni stated that this is yet another victory for the "Bond vigilantes."
Is It Time to Buy U.S. Treasuries on the Dip?
Trump's 'war' with the Federal Reserve has permanently damaged the credit of U.S. bonds.
Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led investors to intensify the selling of U.S. Treasuries, questioning the credibility of Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. Analysts point out that if the Federal Reserve shifts to a more lenient stance on inflation as Trump desires, or if Trump prematurely nominates a 'shadow chairman' to intervene in monetary policy, the Treasury market will decline further.
U.S. Quarterly Refunding Meeting Could Be Positive for Issuance Outlook -- Market Talk
New Federal Reserve News Agency: Trump has made it "harder" for the next Federal Reserve chairman.
The market worries that Trump's public belittling and pressure on Powell will leave an indelible "original sin" for Powell's successor. Regardless of who the next chairman is, the independence of the Federal Reserve will be in question. An independent central bank is often seen as more objective and professional, making its decisions more likely to guide market expectations and stabilize the economy. Since President Clinton's era, most U.S. presidents have adopted a stance of "non-interference" with the Federal Reserve.
Regarding interest rate cuts! Several Federal Reserve officials have spoken out, with possible action as early as June.
① On Thursday local time, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester ruled out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in May but hinted at a possible cut in June; ② On the same day, several Federal Reserve officials publicly discussed the matter of rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also stated that he would support a Federal Reserve rate cut if there is a significant rise in the unemployment rate.
The U.S. Treasury's 7-year bond auction was lackluster, with the problem still lying in overseas demand.
The portion of indirect bids representing overseas demand only secured 59.3% of the total allocation, down from March's 61.2%, marking the lowest level since December 2021. This marks the second consecutive auction of the 7-year bond to experience a tail. Analysts say that if foreign demand really collapses, the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to intervene and start monetizing these government bonds.
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for April 24
Treasury Yields, Dollar Fall as Trade Worries Loom -- Market Talk
March US Durable Goods New Orders Post Much Larger-Than-Expected Gain, Lifted by Transporation Surge
Is Recession 'Inevitable'? Markets Say Don't Be so Sure.
Flipping out faster than flipping a book? Trump once again blasts Powell: Not lowering interest rates is a mistake!
① The President of the USA, Trump, criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell again on Wednesday, accusing him of keeping interest rates too high and expressing that he might give him a call. ② Trump has recently criticized Powell multiple times and has not ruled out the possibility of firing Powell, but reportedly the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce advised him against it.
Goldman Sachs: The risk of a recession in the U.S. is underestimated, focusing on China's Internet, Brokerage, and others.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the Global shipments of Smart Phones will remain flat in 2025 (1.24 billion units).
Harmack stated: The Federal Reserve should continue to reduce its balance sheet, and the MMF policy needs to remain stable.
Harmack stated on Wednesday that the current situation still supports the Federal Reserve's continued reduction of its balance sheet. In the face of significant uncertainty, now is not the time to change MMF policy.
Citadel CEO Griffin: Trump's trade war has become "meaningless", damaging the USA's Assets brand and making Americans poorer.
Griffin believes that Trump's actions have tarnished the once "unparalleled" excellent reputation of USA Assets, including US Treasury bonds, the strength of the US dollar, and national creditworthiness. His tariff policies have failed to bring manufacturing back to the USA and have instead made the USA "20% poorer all around," making the trade war "meaningless" and producing no winners.
Bond giant PIMCO is "shorting": underweighting the dollar!
Investors are increasingly turning to "home country Assets."
The founder of Castle Invest warns Trump: Do not tarnish the reputation of USA national debt.
① Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of Castle Investment, stated on Wednesday that the Global trade dispute initiated by President Trump is damaging the national image of the USA and the reputation of the USA bond market; ② Griffin pointed out that the credit value of USA Treasury bonds was once unmatched, but now we are putting this prestigious label at risk.
China Securities Co.,Ltd. expects that the Federal Reserve will initiate a new round of structural QE to hedge against the ongoing supply pressure of U.S. Treasury bonds.
CSC expects that the Federal Reserve will initiate a new round of structural QE in coordination and relax restrictions on commercial banks' supplemental leverage ratios, to hedge against subsequent supply pressure of U.S. Treasuries.
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for April 23