Tesla Stock Discussion

Handiyanan : With Tesla's vehicle deliveries down 13% YoY, how will the company convince investors that the new affordable EV can reverse this trend starting in 2026? And what impact will it have on margins?

Keiith : Tesla's premium valuation metrics seem high compared to peers. If the robotaxi service and Optimus robots don't meet expectations, how much could the stock price correct?

COCO 2024 : 自动驾驶、储能、机器人等关键非汽车业务
Autonomous driving, energy storage, robotics and other key non-automotive businesses
自动驾驶（FSD）方面:特斯拉将完全自动驾驶软件（FSD）视为未来增长的重要引擎之一，一季度，FSD Beta在化美等地继续向更多车主开放，公司通过订阅模式获得经常性软件收入，据报道，马斯克仍在财报中强调了 最终”解战车辆无监督自动驾驶功能”的路线图，并表示预计今年晚些时候将在美国部分地区启动没有安全员的 Roboty人服务试运营。这意味着如果监管允许，特斯拉可能率先在限定区域实现真正无人驾驶的出行服 务，将FSD商业化推向新阶段。
In terms of autonomous driving (FSD): Tesla regards fully autonomous driving software (FSD) as one of the important engines of future growth. In the first quarter, FSD Beta continued to be open to more car owners in Huamei and other places. The company obtained recurring software revenue through the subscription model. According to reports, Musk still emphasized the roadmap of the ultimate "unsupervised autonomous driving function of the vehicle" in the financial report, and said that it is expected to start the trial operation of Roboty service without safety officers in some parts of the United States later this year. This means that if supervision allows, Tesla may be the first to realize truly unmanned travel services in limited areas, pushing the commercialization of FSD to a new stage.
Q1 2025: Expand FSD Beta (Subscription Revenue)
Mid 2025:Launch Robotaxi （Pilot in Select US Regions)
Tesla FSD and Robotaxi Commerciaization Roadmap(2025)
Late 2025+:Expand FSD (No Human Driver,Regulatory Approval)
尽管完全自动驾驶技术尚未成，华eSardle师出在其对特斯拉 未来20年的盈利模型，FSD软件质贡献了绝大部分利润。因此任何有关dtax划的消息，都可 能极大改变市场对特斯拉的评价。目前业内关注的问题包括:已购车辆的FSD硬件升级路径、与其他车企在自动驾 驶技术上的合作或授权可能，以及马斯克此前承诺的机器人出租车专用车型进展等。 总体而言，自动驾驶业务虽短期收入占比不高，但订阅用户基础在扩大，FS0收入（包括一次性并级和订阅费） 有望在财报中保持同比增长趋势。投资者将留意公司是否破披露FSD装车率或订阅数等指标，以及对完全自动驾驶 L4/L5落地时间表的更新。
Although fully autonomous driving technology has not yet been developed, FSD software contributes the vast majority of profits. Therefore, any news about the dtax plan may greatly change the market's evaluation of Tesla. The current issues of concern in the industry include: the FSD hardware upgrade path for purchased vehicles, the possibility of cooperation or authorization with other automakers on autonomous driving technology, and the progress of the robot taxi special models previously promised by Musk. Overall, although the autonomous driving business does not account for a high proportion of short-term revenue, the subscription user base is expanding, and FSD revenue (including one-time mergers and subscription fees) is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth trend in the financial report. Investors will pay attention to whether the company discloses indicators such as FSD installation rate or number of subscriptions, as well as updates on the timetable for the implementation of fully autonomous driving L4/L5.
一能 释放，特斯拉本季度储能产品交付量达10,4 GWh，再次刷新历史纪这一数字相5 Gn增 长了约159%，实现倍式跃升，。交付的储能产品主要是以部eal系 统。
Tesla's energy storage product deliveries reached 10.4 GWh this quarter, setting a new record. This figure increased by about 159% compared with 5 Gn, achieving a doubling. The energy storage products delivered were mainly eal systems.
高速增长的背后，是公司在2024年下半年上海储能工厂提atiop厂广坡顺利，使得产能供应大幅 提升。据公司指引，2025年特斯拉储能业务目标是同比再增长50%以上。，在Q4财报中，能源发电和存储业务营收 已同比大增67%，利率转正并快速提升。预计Q1能源板块营收将继续大幅增长，对整体业绩的贡献提高。 从市场需求看，全球范围内电网级储能订，egae基供不应求状态。特斯拉甚至计划在新增 更多储能产能（例如可能洲egp厂）。除了硬件销售，特通过tlde源管理件参 与能源市场交易，创造额外收益。
Behind the rapid growth is the smooth construction of the Shanghai energy storage factory in the second half of 2024, which has greatly increased the supply of production capacity. According to the company's guidance, Tesla's energy storage business goal in 2025 is to grow by more than 50% year-on-year. In the Q4 financial report, the revenue of the energy generation and storage business has increased by 67% year-on-year, and the interest rate has turned positive and increased rapidly. It is expected that the revenue of the energy sector in Q1 will continue to grow significantly, and its contribution to the overall performance will increase. From the perspective of market demand, grid-level energy storage orders are in short supply worldwide. Tesla even plans to add more energy storage capacity (such as the EGP factory in Europe). In addition to hardware sales, Tesla participates in energy market transactions through TLD source management software to create additional income.
总的来说，储能业务正成为特斯拉新的增长引擎；本季度储能收入占总营收比重有坚提升至两位数百分比，为缓 解汽车业务波动提供了支撑。
In general, the energy storage business is becoming Tesla's new growth engine; this quarter, the proportion of energy storage revenue in total revenue has increased to double digits, providing support for alleviating fluctuations in the automotive business.

COCO 2024 : 自动驾驶、储能、机器人等关键非汽车业务
Autonomous driving, energy storage, robotics and other key non-automotive businesses

bullrider_21 OP : Figure AI is one of the leaders in humanoid robots. Its goal of building 200,000 humanoid robots by 2029 is ambitious but believable compared to Tesla's ridiculous prediction of 16 billion Optimus in the long term.

jhays : founder is ACHER cant trust them from what theyve been putting out there .

bullrider_21 OP jhays : You can only trust Tesla and Musk, right?

Tliet : Tesla plans to launch new models. How confident are you that these launches won't further disrupt production and instead boost deliveries and market share?

Handiyanan : How much will the margin contraction in the automotive segment actually impact overall profitability? And can energy storage growth truly offset these losses?

nerdbull1669 OP Tliet : Have you considered where will these models be for sales? If you are managing Tesla, would you be planning your sales strategy to see where is the best regions to sell these new models? I am not in a position to answer that, but thinking like a business, I would adjust the sales strategy.

nerdbull1669 OP Handiyanan : I think energy storage cannot cover the revenue contribution yet, but we will have to see how Tesla provide their strategy and guidance to gain back investors confidence. Hope this answer your question.