Amidst stock market turbulence, the "strongest alpha" emerges! Tariffs cannot suppress the explosive expansion of AI computing power.
Taiwan Semiconductor stated that no changes in customer behavior due to USA tariffs have been observed, and its optimistic expectations contrast sharply with the uncertainties in the global market.
'It's Just Not Done': Why Trump Firing Powell Could Rock U.S. Financial Markets
Cathie Wood Says She's Trusting Trump Will Get Call On Tariffs Right: 'Investors Shorting The Equity Market Now Will Be Caught Flat Footed Or Worse'
Support Powell? The "third-in-command" of the Federal Reserve stated that there is no necessity to adjust interest rates in the short term!
① The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, believes that there is no need to change the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy in the short term, although Trump's tariffs may increase inflation, weaken economic growth, and raise unemployment rates. ② Williams emphasized that the Federal Reserve needs to ensure that inflation does not continue to rise and to bring inflation back to the target level of 2%.
Trump and Powell on Collision Course Without Easy Escape
Trump, Meloni Sound Upbeat on Trade Deal. Japan, Mexico, China Tariffs Updates; Follow the Latest Here
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72423057 : You ended with your last question mark, and after saying a lot, do you want to express your views, or do you not understand and need someone else to teach you?
Daring Lu OP 72423057 : My 5 cents opinion is as follows![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Inflation data will reflect the increases in prices earlier than lousy job data. Fed will hold rate or increase the rate if the job data is still too healthy. They alway believe that unemployment rate and inflation have inverse relationship. This time, they will be wrong. Both will go up.
Job data is always a lagging indicator. Companies will always try to keep the workers until the worst... Recession may only be reflected in the data. only in Jul to Aug. Then they will do an emergency easing by lowering interest rate. The stock market will tank not surge.
Overall, I am negative toward how the whole situation is progressing.
Likely, for 2025, we will have 8 or more months with negative returns like year 2022. Too much uncertainties... mean votality in the market. Once Nadaq 100 dropped more than 20% YTD, the bearish outlook will cloud the market. Trump is only concern about US Debt issue.
He is capable of allowing you as an investor or trader to enter Heaven and suddenly let you PLUNGE to hell. Be watchful.
a) Tariff negotiation. Japan PM will fly to US to negotiate the deal. The outcome will give us a good indication of how successful the negotiation with the world will be. I am pessimistic about it. Why? Trump has shown his Trump card - Tariff. He must get what he wanted. Will the world give in to him?
b) US treasuries rate and demand. Eg. 6.8 trillion maturing by June. Trump will definitely want the world to help...
c) TRUMP erratic behaviour and extreme tactics are making everyone losing faith in US.
PEACE will only come after Earthquakes and Thunderstorms.
Most likely, after Jan 2026, the storm will be over, 'normality' in US and the world finally. Or else, you will see World War 3. A repeat of 1930.. Unpredictable. Chaos!
Try to keep 30 - 50% in cash or near cash to take advantage of the very low valuation in times to come.
Ensure you have rainy days fund to cover daily expenses for at least 1 year or more.
Control the demon within you - Greed. Don't let it affect your lifestyle, family harmony, sanity.... Trade with care.
Warren Buffett's golden rule, "Never lose money," is a timeless principle that underscores the importance of capital preservation in investing.
暗号 : Perhaps mid-May is a suitable time to build a position.
Daring Lu OP 暗号 : Move one day at a time. The situation is very fluid. Unpredictable what will happen tomorrow.
Positioning for June FOMC can be discussed after mid-May. A lot of new info has to be taken into consideration.
Nothing is certain. The situation can change overnight. Eg. The below.
<Chair Jerome Powell flagged inflation and growth risks stemming from trade tariffs, reiterating the Fed's cautious stance and signaling that rate cuts won't come prematurely.>
暗号 Daring Lu OP : As long as military hegemony remains, all crises can be overcome.