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Gold has come to a sudden stop, long positions have drastically decreased, and analysts warn that the trend has diverged from the fundamentals.
Barclays strategist Stefano Pascale stated that the surge in Gold Call Options after Trump's tariffs, leading to an inverted skew indicator, coupled with a sharp reduction in hedge fund long positions and the recent pullback in Gold prices, are all reasons to adopt a cautious outlook on Gold prices in the short term. The movement of Gold has already "decoupled" from the "fundamental drivers" such as the US dollar and real interest rates.
Gold Falls Globally: US$ -1.29%, RM -1.34%
Is there a warning of a bullish-bearish reversal in the Options market? Cracks are appearing in the myth of Gold's surge?
This month, Gold's upward trend surpasses all major asset classes, as Trump's tariff war reshapes the Global economic order, with safe-haven funds continuously pouring into the gold market. However, changes in Options positions are causing some market observers to remain cautious.
The gold-silver ratio has rarely broken 100! Silver is expected to welcome a valuation repair window.
As of April 21, 2025, the price ratio of Gold to Silver (hereinafter referred to as the gold-silver ratio) has risen to 105.26, well above the historical average of 50 to 80. A gold-silver ratio over 100 signifies extreme pricing in light of stagflation risks and indicates that the window for Silver valuation recovery is gradually opening.
The rise and subsequent fall of Gold has raised concerns about a peak, while Silver may welcome a corrective rally.
For investors who missed the recent rise in Gold, Silver may be an attractive option.
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Is a quick pullback in Gold a good opportunity to build a position? The fund manager bluntly stated: It is much more reliable than the US stock market!
①This week, gold prices in Shanghai fell after rising for seven consecutive weeks, with international gold prices dropping from a historic high of $3,509.9 per ounce to around $3,300; ②Some Fund managers suggest that investors take advantage of the pullback to gradually build up gold positions, emphasizing that gold has significant upside potential in the long term; ③It was pointed out that global financial market issues have already involved sovereignty, and the only way to resolve sovereign risk may be through physical gold.
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