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Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares Newsroom
SWHY: Under the impact of USA's tariffs 2.0, pay attention to long-term inflation expectations and corporate capital expenditures.
Long-term inflation expectations are the core factor that determines whether the Federal Reserve focuses more on "stagnation" or "inflation."
Federal Reserve officials: Interest rates may remain high for a longer time, but a rate cut is still expected this year.
① The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, stated that due to rising inflation risks, the Federal Reserve may maintain the current interest rate levels longer than expected, but there is still a possibility of rate cuts this year; ② In the economic projections summary (SEP) released last month, the Federal Reserve maintained its forecast of two rate cuts this year.
Federal Reserve's Daly: Tariffs have not yet affected the USA economy, lowering interest rates is not urgent, and there is still room for balance sheet reduction.
San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that she feels reassured by the market's expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2025, but inflation risks remain, and there is no urgent need for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Despite the uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policy, it has yet to impact the USA economy. She mentioned that there is still room for the Fed's balance sheet reduction and that a tighter policy needs to be maintained over a longer period in the future.
The status of the US dollar as a safe-haven Asset is being eroded! Economists warn: Trump is triggering a major crisis.
① Trump's initiation of a comprehensive trade war has shaken the USD's status as a safe haven, causing the USD to fall to a three-year low; ② Economists warn that a decline in confidence in the USA may result in the loss of the USD's status as a Global reserve currency, thereby weakening the USA's advantages; ③ The international community's loss of confidence in the USD and its depreciation may lead to rising prices for imported Commodities and increased loan interest rates, exacerbating economic risks in the USA.
Warren Foresees Market Turmoil If Trump Dismisses Fed's Powell: If Powell Can Be Fired by Trump, 'It Will Crash Markets'
Investing.com Deep Dive: Is Jerome Powell's Job Safe Amid Trump's Threats?
Bescent, walking on Steel wire.
USA Secretary of the Treasury Basent is facing an almost impossible task: to implement Trump's radical tariff policies while also reassuring investors who are increasingly concerned about the explosive growth of USA debt. He not only has to deal with an economic crisis but must also balance the contradictions between political loyalty and market expectations.
Trump and Powell can't escape a confrontation.
Trump realizes that his tariff policy may bring short-term economic pain, so he is seeking the Federal Reserve to ease this blow by lowering interest rates; however, Powell is concerned that an early rate cut could exacerbate the inflation problem, which has already surpassed the 2% target, especially given that tariffs may further increase prices.
Trump's Attacks on Powell Threaten the Fed's Independence. Here's Why It Matters
Support Powell? The "third-in-command" of the Federal Reserve stated that there is no necessity to adjust interest rates in the short term!
① The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, believes that there is no need to change the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy in the short term, although Trump's tariffs may increase inflation, weaken economic growth, and raise unemployment rates. ② Williams emphasized that the Federal Reserve needs to ensure that inflation does not continue to rise and to bring inflation back to the target level of 2%.
Trump calls for interest rate cuts again, harshly criticizes Powell saying "the sooner he leaves, the better"!
The independence of the Federal Reserve is critical.
Gold Trade Reminder: The rise in gold prices has hit the brakes before Good Friday! Is it a trap or an opportunity?
After spot Gold reached a historic high of $3357.66 per ounce, it slightly fell by 0.48% on Thursday (April 17), closing at $3327.04. Despite the short-term pullback, Gold prices have still risen by over 2% this week, maintaining a strong trend. Analysts pointed out that with Good Friday approaching, some investors chose to take profits, which put pressure on Gold prices. However, the market generally believes that any significant pullback could attract new Bids, as the uncertainty of the Global economy in 2025 continues to support Gold's safe-haven demand. The Gold market is closed on Friday (April 18) due to the Good Friday holiday. The dollar index
US Jobless Claims by Federal Employees Ticked up Last Week
Reports indicate that Trump intends to replace Powell, while former Federal Reserve officials advise against interfering with the independence of the central bank.
Recently, USA President Trump met with former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Walsh to discuss the possibility of replacing current Federal Reserve Chair Powell ahead of schedule.
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for April 17
Trump Declines to Say He Regrets Nominating Powell -- WSJ
Weekly Jobless Claims Log Surprise Drop, Continuing Applications Rise
The "soft data" continues to worsen, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing survey Index has fallen to its lowest point in two years.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Index plummeted from 12.5 last month to -26.4, reaching a two-year low, far below the expected 2.2. Additionally, the New Order Index dropped significantly to -34.2, while the cost and selling price expectation indices skyrocketed, raising market concerns about the risk of stagflation.
Trump Takes Powell to Task Over Slow Interest Rate Cuts
Williams, the "third-in-command" of the Federal Reserve, does not believe there is a need to adjust the federal funds rate in the short term.
Federal Reserve's "third-in-command" Williams stated on Thursday that despite the possibility of Trump's tariffs pushing inflation higher and dragging down the economy, there is currently no need to adjust interest rates. The priority is to prevent tariffs from causing sustained inflation and to maintain the 2% inflation target and anchoring of market expectations. He expects this year's GDP growth in the USA to be below 1%, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to between 4.5% and 5%, but this does not constitute a recession.