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Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares Stock Discussion

10baggerbamm

Apr 24 02:27

LESSON OF THE DAY PART 2

$Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL.US)$
Never run a market order on a leveraged ETF. they suckered them three times within a very short window people that ran Market orders look at the Gap that they got them for look how much more they paid up and they brought it right back down.

10baggerbamm

Apr 17 19:16

$Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL.US)$ you're going to want to keep an eye on this ETF..
the general risk is a recession number one and I already commented this morning under a bank ETF so if you want you can look up bnku and read what I wrote.. the catalyst for this basket to reverse and I don't mean a one day or two day event but to put on a three or four month rally is going to be a Fed rate cut. we had Chairman Mao AKA powell of the Federal reserve yesterday issue ...

10baggerbamm OP : as a follow-up when you look at this chart and I understand it's a different administration but it also takes into the covid market sell-off event which is a one-off that the market has never seen before where the world shut down. this sector has huge boom bust cycles and you see them they're very defined. and you can see we're getting very close to a bottoming event so even if a worst case this goes down $10 I know that sucks you buy a thousand shares you're down 10 bucks ..welcome to my world of a leveraged ETF owner.. you buy more that's why you have to take half positions in anticipation that if you do get a thousand point sell off in the Dow if you do get notice of a recession negative GDP number back to back this is going to get whacked but when it's darkest is when you have to buy this sector if you wait till the dawn of day you have missed it. look at every negative event on the bottom of these cycles these are not stock splits these are Market sell-offs within the housing marketplace within the real estate marketplace within the consumer marketplace home Depot Lowe's or in the ETF. the rally in the CTF will make you rich there are options on it and if you have the money to risk now's when you want to give serious consideration to buying a long-term equity option because this is $100 ETF in about a year's time frame maybe a little longer there's huge huge upside coming. this is not one that you have to worry about tariffs you just have to worry about interest rates and recessions and a lot of that is baked in as a result of this Market slide that you see in this ETF. if you have the risk capital and the patients to buy a deep out of the money call option I would look at the one that I have highlighted and I would bid that equity option I would not put it by in on the offer I would go maybe a quarter point above the bid or 3/8 above the bid and see if you can get filled because there's not going to be a lot of activity in this ETF right now because institutions have all but forgotten about it the underlying companies have been flushed they've been sold out of portfolios they're under weighted in portfolios and that's why you're going to get a massive rally because the institutions will need to refill their portfolio with these underlying companies that they have sold down over the past 6 months.

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TWIMO (151403908) : yikes! those who bought in Jan2022 took 2 years to smile again, probably kept it for good fortune only to go into depression in less than 6 months 🫢

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10baggerbamm OP TWIMO (151403908) : yeah they bought it the wrong time they bought it the absolute worst time that would be like buying this ETF and 160 bucks only to watch it just deteriorate and get crushed every day. you have to understand these companies are not going to zero you're not going to have home Depot and Lowe's go to zero they beat they guided higher now maybe next quarter they won't I don't know but as a group these companies are established companies they have barriers to entry which is what you need to have you're not going to wake up having Epiphany and say I want to be a Fortune 100 company in this industry it's impossible so these stocks go in a cycle they have a sine wave pattern. so you want to buy when it's dark and right now it's really bad and it could get worse that's what I'm saying I don't have that Crystal Ball but I will tell you that these stocks have been flushed out of ownership from mutual funds from hedge funds they're not looking at these sectors now but the contrarians which are not momentum investors they're the other side they're looking at where the value is within the market and this sector represents significant value from a risk reward yeah if we have a horrific day this could go to $28 but $118 I'm telling you is all but in the bank in a year to year and a half time frame so risk reward is outstanding. I will tell you if it crosses 118 it's going to go to 140 or 150

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10baggerbamm OP TWIMO (151403908) : if you look at the composition it is 100% dependent upon the housing industry when people start building houses when I say people lennar pulte Ryan go down the list of your regional and national home builders this ETF is off to the races so last quarter these home builders gave cautionary guidance and they guided lower and you can pull up any stock that's on this list and you will see how they have traded down because this ETF is tracking them on a leveraged weighted basis. the 10-year treasury also has a waiting on this ETF if we go back below 4 you're going to see a pop out of this ETF but that's a very short-term move and those are the people that are trading it right now they're buying it here or on the open because we're going to have a down open United health is bringing the market down on the Dow but if we get a rally in the 10-year for whatever reason because president Trump negotiates other countries having to buy us treasuries as part of the trade deals as an example if that type of news is announced the 10-year rallies this ETF pops but that's not a long-term event
this is one that is Federal reserve driven a trending where interest rates will be cut where you have expansion and growth within the housing market because of 30-year mortgage rate which right now is back up against 7% gets down into the fives that's going to be what the catalyst needs to have home builders these manufacturers starting to construct homes. you also need to understand that the tariff has hurt these home builders because the wood coming from Canada has a increase the net cost of building a house right now is about 9% higher from materials from Canada you've got steel you have aluminum you have wood they all are tariff related so earlier I said you don't have to worry about tariffs you don't have to worry about them with China you got to worry about them with Canada but that's all going to be negotiated.. so right now you've got a $300,000 house that cost about $340,000 because material prices are up some of that's going to come down with these trade deals being negotiated. at the end of the day when interest rates come down this ETF is off to the races cuz when these home builders start to build they're not going to stop so I would tell you to follow each one of these large home builders on x on a regular basis and see what they're talking about... you are going to see a boom of housing at some point in time I don't know when it is this ETF is going to be moving in advance in anticipation so the cycles that you see in the past covid the world was collapsing that's kind of where we are right now with the tariffs that's why I'm saying you got a position yourself when it's the darkest in this type of an ETF

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ASteffie : it's ticker is NAIL

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10baggerbamm

Apr 4 23:05

$Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL.US)$ this is crazy this is one of the few stocks or ETFs that's in the green
and that's because interest rates right now are below 4% so that is very good for 30-year loans when you go buy a house
the problem is when you have this bloodbath of a sell-off in the stock market and people are losing an enormous amount of their savings they're not going to be buying houses...
so this ETF it should be down $10 today it shouldn't be up 2.5

10baggerbamm

Mar 20 02:53

$Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL.US)$ 🚀

10baggerbamm

Mar 19 23:14

$Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL.US)$ FYI
the home builder Market has been absolutely decimated the stocks have been crushed and this is due to the fact that they have guided lower for the first and second quarter of this year.
this guidance was given last month based off of the Outlook of the Federal reserve that they were going to hold off on monetary policy and the consensus was back in I say last month I mean end of January beginning of February that there was go...

FOMC holds rates amid heightened uncertainty: Where will US stocks head next?

10baggerbamm

Mar 14 01:25

$Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL.US)$ broke another daily support level... weekly is 45.60... a long way down

10baggerbamm

Mar 12 22:50

$Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL.US)$ the tariffs hurt the housing industry
the housing market is one of the primary drivers to the US economy and when you increase steel when you increase aluminum when you increase lumber tariffs even though we can use lumber from the US we still buy from abroad it increases the cost to build a house
so that's why you're seeing this index taking it on the chin yet again today
well we have seen a great quarter from Lowe's and home D...

10baggerbamm

Mar 12 01:53

$Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL.US)$ and we see who's behind the sell-off in this one

10baggerbamm

Mar 10 21:52

$Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL.US)$ home Depot Lowe's and surprisingly all of the home builders despite this bad news about new home construction they're all gapping higher this morning

10baggerbamm

Feb 27 03:40

$Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL.US)$ both home Depot and Lowe's killed earnings gave excellent outlooks what flush this today was housing starts they were below expectations.

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