Next week's important schedule: USA and Europe Q1 GDP, USA non-farm employment, China PMI, Buffett Shareholders' Meeting, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon Earnings Reports.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. will hold its Shareholder Meeting, Meta will host its first AI Developer Conference, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, and Japan and the USA may engage in a second round of negotiations. In terms of data, pay attention to the USA and Eurozone's Q1 GDP, the USA's April non-farm payroll report, March's PCE price index, and China's April manufacturing PMI. Regarding Earnings Reports, focus on Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Pfizer, Eli Lilly and Co, Coca-Cola, Kweichow Moutai, and others.
Bank of America Hartnett: Sell US stocks at highs, Buy Gold at lows.
Hartnett pointed out that as the "American exceptionalism" shifts to "American denialism," funds are flowing from the USA market to other regions, especially the Emerging Markets and Europe. Based on expectations of continued US dollar depreciation, increased market uncertainty, and rising demand for safe-haven assets, Hartnett remains Bullish on Gold.
The "Trump recession" has sparked a new trend in USA Social Media: learning how to survive tough days.
① As Trump imposed tariffs that impacted Global trade and the economy, Consumer panic about "an impending recession" reached its peak in recent years; ② In the face of economic uncertainty, many netizens have started to pay attention to posts on Social Media that teach "survival tips during a recession"; ③ American internet users have also discovered that due to the surge in living costs in recent years, the "money-saving tips" from more than a decade ago may no longer be effective today.
Charting the Global Economy: U.S. Dollar Slide Evocative of Nixon
JPMorgan survey: The market widely predicts that the USA will fall into stagflation, and the dollar continues to weaken.
The survey released by JPMorgan on Friday shows that the market generally believes that the risk of stagflation in the USA over the next year is much higher than the risk of recession, while the most Bullish asset class for 2025 is Cash; Most respondents believe that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the most negatively impactful policy on the USA.
If Trump really wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, what should he do? Ruin employment!
Both Goldman Sachs and senior officials at the Federal Reserve point to the same key interest rate cut — the rapid rise in unemployment, rather than inflation, is the real signal that compels the Federal Reserve to take action.
U.S. stocks and the dollar have stopped falling and rebounded, yet Bank of America warns that investors should Sell at high points as the conditions for sustained growth are not present.
Bank of America strategists have stated that investors should consider selling on rallies in the US dollar and warned that the current conditions do not support a sustained increase.
Interest rate cut in June? The "mouthpiece" of the Federal Reserve urgently reminds: do not overthink the officials' speeches.
① Cleveland Fed President Harker ruled out the possibility of a Fed rate cut in May during his speech on Thursday, but hinted at a potential cut in June. ② However, the well-known Fed "mouthpiece" journalist Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "new Fed press agency," believes that Harker's speech was not as dovish as some people imagined.
The "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" speaks out! Waller: The Federal Reserve made a "systemic error" by indulging in fiscal policy and exacerbating inflation.
As a former Federal Reserve governor and a candidate considered by Trump for the position of Secretary of the Treasury, Warsh is regarded as the "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve, and his remarks are particularly prominent in the current debate on USA's MMF policy.
Defying Trump, Powell Said to Tell World's Finance Chiefs 'Central Banks Must Be Shielded From Politics'
Fed Bashing: What Could Go Wrong? -- Barron's
Americans Are Downbeat on the Economy. They Keep Spending Anyway. -- WSJ
Powell extensively discusses the independence of central banks, while the IMF continuously applauds.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of central banks being insulated from political influence, to ensure they can focus on maintaining stable inflation and high employment rates. The Federal Reserve will enter a silent period starting on Saturday, and the market expects interest rates to remain unchanged at the Fed's meeting next week.
Kevin Warsh Says the Fed Is Broken. He's Taking Dead Aim at Powell's Job.
Potential Fed Chair Candidate Says Current Wounds Are 'Self-Inflicted' -- WSJ
Federal Reserve Financial Stability Survey: Tariffs and policy uncertainty have risen to become the primary risks.
① The Federal Reserve released its semiannual "Financial Stability Report," clearly demonstrating the widespread concerns in the market triggered by Trump's policies; ② Compared to six months ago, the market is more worried about the sustainability of government bonds, with the trade war and policy uncertainty becoming the most prominent financial risks.
As Trump approaches his first hundred days in office, the dollar has reached its worst performance since Nixon, and the Treasury Secretary states that the dollar will still remain the world's reserve currency.
Since Trump returned to the White House on January 20 until April 25, the US dollar has fallen nearly 10%, marking the worst performance for a president's first 100 days in the USA since 1973. Although some believe Trump's economic policy aims to end the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, US Treasury Secretary Bencz clarified that the dollar will always be a reserve currency in his lifetime.
Stocks Claw Back Most of April's Tariff Losses -- WSJ
Could the USA lower interest rates in June? The "New Federal Reserve News Agency": Some are over-interpreting this!
Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the 'New Federal Reserve Correspondent,' posted on the X platform stating that the comments made by Cleveland Fed President Harmack on Thursday drew widespread attention, as some market participants were eager to reach an overly optimistic conclusion that this indicated the Fed might be ready to cut interest rates as early as June. Timiraos noted that Harmack's main point is that the Fed will not hastily lower interest rates without obtaining clearer information about the economic outlook.
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for April 25