Dan’l : Excellent, as always… my primary concerns, in re $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ et al., would be of potential escalations.
TSMC Risks in 2025: Tariffs, China’s Taiwan Stance, and Global Expansion
•  Tariffs (China-US Trade War):
•  Risk: US tariffs on semiconductors and China’s 34% tariffs on Taiwanese goods could raise TSMC’s supply chain costs. US export controls may further limit TSMC’s Chinese market access, previously 14% of revenue (e.g., Huawei). Recent 27% stock drop tied to tariff fears.
•  Mitigation: TSMC’s $100B US investment (five Arizona factories) aims to dodge tariffs, but higher US production costs could pressure margins.
•  China’s Position on Taiwan:
•  Risk: China’s military pressure and potential blockade threaten TSMC’s Taiwan-based operations, which produce 90% of global advanced chips. Tariffs targeting TSMC signal economic retaliation. A weakened “silicon shield” from US expansion raises concerns about Taiwan’s strategic leverage.
•  Mitigation: TSMC and Taiwan emphasize keeping advanced tech (e.g., 1nm R&D) domestic. Remote machine disablement plans deter invasion risks.
•  Global Expansion:
•  Risk: $38–$42B capital expenditure for US, Japan, and Germany plants strains finances and diverts resources from Taiwan, potentially slowing innovation. US operations face delays and higher costs due to labor issues.
•  Mitigation: US CHIPS Act subsidies ($6.6B) and tax credits offset costs. Expansion diversifies risk and secures market access.
Outlook: TSMC faces tariff-driven cost hikes, geopolitical disruptions from China, and expansion challenges, but its AI chip dominance and strategic investments provide resilience. Short-term stock volatility is likely, with long-term growth potential if tensions ease. Monitor trade policies and China’s actions for updates.
~ Grok

小凶许卖Q币 : delulu

Kraks : Hopefully it will recover at the end of the day but everything is pointing at 155...

70129243 OP : i think it has found bottom

Kraks 70129243 OP : Apparently not! I don't really get it: no news (bad or good), no new tariff, a stock value that is definitely too low even in this volatile market and yet this stock is able to lose 2.5% (-1.74% Day and additional -.80% after hours) on a normal day. I am puzzled...