The non-farm payrolls are coming in strong! If cracks begin to show in the USA labor market, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in June is expected to increase significantly.
The shadow of tariffs looms over the USA economy, with top Wall Street investment institution Apollo Global Management warning that Friday's non-farm report may highlight signs of weakness in the labor market.
After the record trade deficit in March for Commodities, Wall Street has determined that GDP in the USA will shrink in the first quarter.
The rush by companies to import before tariffs caused the USA's trade deficit to soar to a historic high in March, which is expected to significantly drag down first-quarter economic growth. Morgan Stanley has drastically lowered its first-quarter GDP forecast for the USA from zero growth to a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, Goldman Sachs reduced its forecast from -0.2% to -0.8%, and JPMorgan adjusted its estimate from zero to -1.75%.
Under the threat of tariffs, the USA's commodity trade deficit hits a historical record! The first quarter GDP is likely to face a severe setback.
Due to companies importing Commodities in large quantities to avoid tariff costs, the USA's trade deficit in Commodities expanded to a record 162 billion dollars in March.
Trump has criticized Powell again, this time without naming him.
A week after claiming he had no intention of firing Powell, Trump again publicly criticized the Federal Reserve, stating, "We have a Federal Reserve that is not performing well," and believes he understands interest rates "better than he does."
March Job Openings Drop as Markets Await Nonfarm Payrolls Data
Tariffs have sparked widespread public dissatisfaction, forcing Trump to step out of his "comfort zone" and face voters directly.
① As various opinion polls show a rapid decline in Trump's approval ratings, the president of the USA has also ended the behavior pattern of the past three months; ② According to the schedule, he will travel to Michigan for a rally on Tuesday and deliver two graduation speeches in May.
Consumer Confidence Further Wanes as Expectations Slump to 13-Year Low
Job Openings Fall More Than Expected in March, Hover Near Four-year Low
In March, JOLTS job openings in the USA hit a six-month low, significantly below expectations.
In March, the USA had 7.192 million JOLTS job openings, below the expected 7.5 million and lower than the predictions of all economists surveyed. However, the number of layoffs decreased, hiring activity remained stable, and more employees voluntarily resigned, which somewhat alleviated the weakness in job vacancy data. After the data was released, US Treasury yields briefly fell. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" stated that the situation of slow hiring and slow layoffs in the USA continued into March.
April US Consumer Confidence Falls on Declines in Current Conditions, Expectations
March US Job Openings Decline Unexpectedly, Hiring Rise, Separations Fall
Trade Data Deepen Inventories Mystery; GDP Gloom -- Market Talk
Goods Trade Deficit Widens in March -- WSJ
Fade U.S. Dollar Rallies - BofA Securities
US March Advance Trade Gap Widens Unexpectedly, Inventories Mixed
US Wholesale Inventories See a Slight Increase, but Fall Short of Forecast
Dollar Recovers Some Ground on Auto-Tariff Relief News -- Market Talk
Dollar Edges Higher Ahead of Key Economic Data Releases
US Dollar: Tariff Ambiguity Clouds Greenback's Recovery
Dollar Struggles to Recover Materially Amid Tariff Uncertainty -- Market Talk