GLD250425C294000
- 9.60
- -2.02-17.38%
SPDR Gold ETF Newsroom
If Trump really wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, what should he do? Ruin employment!
Both Goldman Sachs and senior officials at the Federal Reserve point to the same key interest rate cut — the rapid rise in unemployment, rather than inflation, is the real signal that compels the Federal Reserve to take action.
Interest rate cut in June? The "mouthpiece" of the Federal Reserve urgently reminds: do not overthink the officials' speeches.
① Cleveland Fed President Harker ruled out the possibility of a Fed rate cut in May during his speech on Thursday, but hinted at a potential cut in June. ② However, the well-known Fed "mouthpiece" journalist Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "new Fed press agency," believes that Harker's speech was not as dovish as some people imagined.
The "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" speaks out! Waller: The Federal Reserve made a "systemic error" by indulging in fiscal policy and exacerbating inflation.
As a former Federal Reserve governor and a candidate considered by Trump for the position of Secretary of the Treasury, Warsh is regarded as the "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve, and his remarks are particularly prominent in the current debate on USA's MMF policy.
Could the USA lower interest rates in June? The "New Federal Reserve News Agency": Some are over-interpreting this!
Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the 'New Federal Reserve Correspondent,' posted on the X platform stating that the comments made by Cleveland Fed President Harmack on Thursday drew widespread attention, as some market participants were eager to reach an overly optimistic conclusion that this indicated the Fed might be ready to cut interest rates as early as June. Timiraos noted that Harmack's main point is that the Fed will not hastily lower interest rates without obtaining clearer information about the economic outlook.
The USA's consumer confidence continued to deteriorate in April: tariffs may trigger an economic recession, and inflation expectations have surged significantly.
① The USA Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to one of its lowest levels on record, declining for the fourth consecutive month, marking the fourth lowest data since the end of the 1970s; ② Consumers expect their income growth to slow down over the next year. Economists warn that businesses will pass on tariffs and CSI Commodity Equity Index costs to consumers, who will face more financial pain.
As the Global economy enters a new round of tariff battles, the probability of a recession in the USA is equivalent to "flipping a coin".
Economists expect that the new round of Global trade war makes the USA's economic recession almost a "coin toss" game — the probability of recession rises to 45%.
Market expectations for a rate cut in June have risen to 58%. U.S. stocks continue to rebound, and BTC ETF has seen a net inflow of 2.76 billion dollars for five consecutive days.
The expectation of a shift in Federal Reserve policy has become a core driving factor in the market. As the 'Fed's mouthpiece' disclosed details of Trump's pressure on Powell and several Fed officials publicly supported a rate cut in June, the consensus in the market regarding the turning point in MMF policy has gradually strengthened.
BofA's Hartnett Warns Sell the Rebound in US Stocks, Dollar
Deutsche Bank warns: The US dollar is facing a crisis of confidence and may fall into a structural decline.
① Deutsche Bank warns that in the next few years, the dollar will fall into a structural downtrend, and the Exchange Rates against the euro may drop to their lowest level in over a decade; ② The USA's tariff policies and increased uncertainty have raised investors' doubts about the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, leading to a wave of selling of the dollar.
Trump's 'war' with the Federal Reserve has permanently damaged the credit of U.S. bonds.
Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led investors to intensify the selling of U.S. Treasuries, questioning the credibility of Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. Analysts point out that if the Federal Reserve shifts to a more lenient stance on inflation as Trump desires, or if Trump prematurely nominates a 'shadow chairman' to intervene in monetary policy, the Treasury market will decline further.
U.S. Quarterly Refunding Meeting Could Be Positive for Issuance Outlook -- Market Talk
The "New Federal Reserve News Agency": Although the next Federal Reserve Chairman has not been decided, Trump has already tarnished their "credibility".
① Although it is currently unknown who will be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, it is certain that this person will be nominated by Trump, and it is difficult to escape a common public doubt; ② This doubt is: will he/she become Trump's "puppet"?
New Federal Reserve News Agency: Trump has made it "harder" for the next Federal Reserve chairman.
The market worries that Trump's public belittling and pressure on Powell will leave an indelible "original sin" for Powell's successor. Regardless of who the next chairman is, the independence of the Federal Reserve will be in question. An independent central bank is often seen as more objective and professional, making its decisions more likely to guide market expectations and stabilize the economy. Since President Clinton's era, most U.S. presidents have adopted a stance of "non-interference" with the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve collectively hits the "pause button"! Amidst the tariff war, Powell holds the "rate cut button" but dares not act rashly?
The Federal Reserve's senior officials spoke intensively on Thursday (April 25), clearly indicating that there is currently no need to adjust the MMF policy. Governor Waller and Cleveland Fed President Mester both emphasized the need to wait for more data to assess the actual impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy. Waller pointed out that the effects of the tariff policy will not be evident until this summer at the earliest, so the likelihood of an immediate policy shift is extremely low. The "bullet effect" of tariffs: Is inflation just a fleeting phenomenon? Waller repeatedly emphasized that tariffs might only trigger a "one-time price increase" rather than sustained inflation. He analyzed that while rising import costs push up prices, shrinking consumption, declining employment, and household financial situations are all factors.
Regarding interest rate cuts! Several Federal Reserve officials have spoken out, with possible action as early as June.
① On Thursday local time, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester ruled out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in May but hinted at a possible cut in June; ② On the same day, several Federal Reserve officials publicly discussed the matter of rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also stated that he would support a Federal Reserve rate cut if there is a significant rise in the unemployment rate.
Trump Is Making the Next Fed Chair's Job Even Harder -- WSJ
Federal Reserve's Kashkari: Resolving trade disputes will eliminate economic uncertainty.
Kashkari stated on Thursday that resolving trade disputes with major partners as soon as possible will help eliminate the uncertainty hanging over the USA economy.
Another Bullish factor pushing up gold prices? The Central Bank of Kenya is "actively considering" purchasing Gold.
The Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya stated that Kenya is considering incorporating Gold into its Forex reserves in order to diversify its Forex reserves beyond the US dollar and other MMF.
Oil Prices Climb On Weaker US Dollar, Uncertainty Around OPEC+ Output
Fed Kashkari Cites Trade Policy Uncertainty as a Risk to Jobs