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Interest rate cut in June? The "mouthpiece" of the Federal Reserve urgently reminds: do not overthink the officials' speeches.
① Cleveland Fed President Harker ruled out the possibility of a Fed rate cut in May during his speech on Thursday, but hinted at a potential cut in June. ② However, the well-known Fed "mouthpiece" journalist Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "new Fed press agency," believes that Harker's speech was not as dovish as some people imagined.
The "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" speaks out! Waller: The Federal Reserve made a "systemic error" by indulging in fiscal policy and exacerbating inflation.
As a former Federal Reserve governor and a candidate considered by Trump for the position of Secretary of the Treasury, Warsh is regarded as the "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve, and his remarks are particularly prominent in the current debate on USA's MMF policy.
Could the USA lower interest rates in June? The "New Federal Reserve News Agency": Some are over-interpreting this!
Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the 'New Federal Reserve Correspondent,' posted on the X platform stating that the comments made by Cleveland Fed President Harmack on Thursday drew widespread attention, as some market participants were eager to reach an overly optimistic conclusion that this indicated the Fed might be ready to cut interest rates as early as June. Timiraos noted that Harmack's main point is that the Fed will not hastily lower interest rates without obtaining clearer information about the economic outlook.
The USA's consumer confidence continued to deteriorate in April: tariffs may trigger an economic recession, and inflation expectations have surged significantly.
① The USA Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to one of its lowest levels on record, declining for the fourth consecutive month, marking the fourth lowest data since the end of the 1970s; ② Consumers expect their income growth to slow down over the next year. Economists warn that businesses will pass on tariffs and CSI Commodity Equity Index costs to consumers, who will face more financial pain.
As the Global economy enters a new round of tariff battles, the probability of a recession in the USA is equivalent to "flipping a coin".
Economists expect that the new round of Global trade war makes the USA's economic recession almost a "coin toss" game — the probability of recession rises to 45%.
Market expectations for a rate cut in June have risen to 58%. U.S. stocks continue to rebound, and BTC ETF has seen a net inflow of 2.76 billion dollars for five consecutive days.
The expectation of a shift in Federal Reserve policy has become a core driving factor in the market. As the 'Fed's mouthpiece' disclosed details of Trump's pressure on Powell and several Fed officials publicly supported a rate cut in June, the consensus in the market regarding the turning point in MMF policy has gradually strengthened.
