Industrials, Agriculture, and China Banking reach new highs again! The Banks Sector continues to be hot, and today's "new high bull" scan shows that these directions also have a high proportion.
①Today, Bank stocks became active again, among which, the three major banks, Industrial, Agricultural, and China, continue to hit historical highs, with Construction Bank approaching its historical peak. ②The financing balance of the Banks sector has slightly declined compared to mid-April, while still remaining at a relatively low level for this year. ③A total of nearly 20 stocks reached historical highs today, with the highest proportion being Autos stocks, and there are also many from basic chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing, and the Banks stocks.
Asia-Pacific Markets Set to Open Lower After Trump's Attack on Fed Chair Sends Wall Street Tumbling
Banks have increased interest rates on consumer loans in advance, with more low-interest products hidden in the "discount track."
Indirect remarks highlight the "cost performance" even more.
The US dollar plummets, Emerging Markets make a strong comeback: the Thai baht and Jilin soar, and the Indian stock market rises for five consecutive days!
After recording the largest weekly increase in six weeks last week, the Emerging Markets Currency Index continued to rise this Monday, with the Thai Baht and Malaysian Ringgit showing strong performance, both increasing by 1% in a single day. Over the past month, the Thai Baht has appreciated by a cumulative 3.2% against the US dollar, marking a significant upward trend. The five-day increase of the India Nifty 50 Index (5.99%) has set the highest record since February 2021.
Exclusive | Banks that stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment are taking action, with banks in coastal provinces responding to requests: for foreign trade enterprises, "no loan withdrawal, no loan interruption".
① Many Banks have actively taken action regarding "stabilizing foreign investment and foreign trade." From large state-owned banks to local urban commercial banks, several Banks are providing support to foreign trade enterprises in various ways based on their own advantages; ② Recently, banks in major foreign trade provinces along the Southeast Coast have received relevant requests to "not withdraw loans and continue lending" to local foreign trade enterprises.
The central bank and four other departments: Enhance the functions of the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and its Global network coverage.
① The plan proposes to enhance the functionality of the RMB cross-border payment system and its global network coverage, encouraging more Banks to join CIPS and continuously expand the coverage of the CIPS network. ② The plan also suggests optimizing the management model and business processes for Forex business, improving the Conglomerates' Global fund management system, expanding the functionality and application scenarios of free trade Accounts, and promoting Financial Institutions to enhance their digital service levels.
Will it rise or not?
Caitong believes that whether or not the LPR is lowered, it may not necessarily drive interest rates to immediately break their previous lows. After all, the market has to navigate the trade-offs between the Sino-U.S. trade friction, the strength of a package of incremental policies, and the choice of monetary policy, with the combination of the three being dynamic and full of uncertainty.
The CSI Consumer 360 index is rebounding after hitting the bottom, banks stocks are performing strongly against the trend, and under the continuous shrinking environment, defense may become the main melody for short-term trading.
Track the entire lifecycle of the main Sector.
Several listed Banks responded to the impact of the tariff war: it may affect loan demand and interest margins, and risk control thresholds will shift forward.
① Fully recognize the pressure that USA tariff policies may bring on loan demand and net interest margins. ② If the tariff disputes escalate further, it is believed that corresponding industrial or financial policies will be implemented to provide support.
How significant is the foreign trade related Business of major national Banks? The annual report of China Construction Bank mentions this, and the industry says the impact still needs to be observed.
① After the "reciprocal tariff" turmoil, do major Banks have any new countermeasures? Will it affect the Crediting volume in the second quarter? The interviewed Banks all stated that "it is inconvenient to respond". ② Cross-border trade Business and international settlement should be one of the focus areas for medium and large Banks, especially listed Banks, in recent years. The impact of this tariff turmoil still needs to be observed, making it difficult to reach a conclusion.
Since April, nearly 30 Banks have intensively lowered their fixed deposit interest rates, mainly for medium to long-term periods, with the end of the "New Year good start" being the main reason.
① Statistics by the financial media found that since April, 30 Banks in the country have lowered the interest rates on fixed deposit products, mostly for medium to long-term durations; ② The reasoning for raising interest rates around New Year's Day and lowering them in April is basically the same, "both are to serve the needs of 'good start'"; ③ After the 'good start' ends, the continued reduction of interest rates by Banks throughout the year is a major trend.
New trends in Real Estate Crediting: Postal Savings Bank, Everbright Bank and others strengthen their support for businesses, while Banks show divided attitudes toward personal housing loans.
① Multiple Banks are increasing their lending in the real estate sector. ② In terms of personal housing mortgages, Banks have differing attitudes: some Banks state they will increase mortgage lending, while others indicate a "cautious approach."
UBS Global strategy: What do USA tariffs mean for Emerging Markets Crediting?
A key channel for the deterioration of Crediting expectations in Emerging Markets is exports.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: Countermeasures against tariffs boost Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group prices, the planting chain directly benefits.
At today's Brokerage morning meeting, CITIC SEC believes that countermeasures against tariffs boost the prices of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group, which directly benefits the planting chain; HAITONG SEC proposed a bullish view on the relative yields of the Banks Sector in April; Galaxy Securities stated that it focuses on Gold and countermeasures against rare earths.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: The industry allocation recommendations for April should focus on two main lines.
At today's Brokerage morning meeting, Galaxy Securities stated that the characteristics of a short-term structural economic recovery remain evident, with industries related to new productive forces performing better; HTSC believes that increased investment in global AI computing power is expected to drive the performance of businesses in sectors such as Optical Communications to remain positive; China Securities Co., Ltd. suggested that the industry allocation recommendations for April should focus on two main lines.
It is the "last day" for Consumer loan interest rates below 3%, and many Banks are still rushing to attract customers, fearing increased pressure on future lending.
① Many Banks are promoting a slogan "Last Day of Low Interest Rates", urging customers to quickly check their limits and receive interest rate coupons for withdrawals; ② Several Banks' Crediting personnel are concerned that an increase in Consumer loan rates may lead to a decrease in interest, continuing to increase lending pressure.
How was the pricing scheme for the capital increase of the four major banks determined? Direct coverage of the four major banks' 520 billion "capital increase" meeting.
Senior executives of the four major banks explain the relevant details.
The Ministry of Finance actively supports the large state-owned commercial Banks in replenishing their core Tier 1 capital.
① The Ministry of Finance will issue the first batch of 500 billion yuan special government bonds in 2025, which will be used to support the Bank Of China, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank Of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank Of China in replenishing their core Tier 1 capital; ② Currently, state-owned large commercial banks are operating steadily, with stable asset quality and sufficient provisions. Supplementing capital through special government bonds will enhance their robust operational capability, promote high-quality development, and better serve the real economy.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: Focus on economic performance exceeding expectations or new catalysts in Technology, and emphasize structural opportunities in Technology and the pro-cyclical main line.
At today's Brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. suggested focusing on the economy exceeding expectations or new catalysts in Technology, emphasizing structural opportunities in Technology and pro-cyclical main lines; KSY Securities believes that the overall Hong Kong stock market has not yet entered a full bull market rally stage; HTSC stated that the overall lithium battery production scheduling in April has improved month-on-month, Bullish on the marginal continuous improvement of supply and demand in the Industry Chain.
Stability and quality improvement: China Construction Bank Corporation's net profit is expected to grow by 1.15% in 2024, with annual dividends exceeding 100 billion.
On March 28, China Construction Bank Corporation announced that it will achieve a net income of 336.282 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 1.15%. As of the end of 2024, ...