Next week's important schedule: USA and Europe Q1 GDP, USA non-farm employment, China PMI, Buffett Shareholders' Meeting, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon Earnings Reports.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. will hold its Shareholder Meeting, Meta will host its first AI Developer Conference, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, and Japan and the USA may engage in a second round of negotiations. In terms of data, pay attention to the USA and Eurozone's Q1 GDP, the USA's April non-farm payroll report, March's PCE price index, and China's April manufacturing PMI. Regarding Earnings Reports, focus on Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Pfizer, Eli Lilly and Co, Coca-Cola, Kweichow Moutai, and others.
Bank of America Hartnett: Sell US stocks at highs, Buy Gold at lows.
Hartnett pointed out that as the "American exceptionalism" shifts to "American denialism," funds are flowing from the USA market to other regions, especially the Emerging Markets and Europe. Based on expectations of continued US dollar depreciation, increased market uncertainty, and rising demand for safe-haven assets, Hartnett remains Bullish on Gold.
The "Trump recession" has sparked a new trend in USA Social Media: learning how to survive tough days.
① As Trump imposed tariffs that impacted Global trade and the economy, Consumer panic about "an impending recession" reached its peak in recent years; ② In the face of economic uncertainty, many netizens have started to pay attention to posts on Social Media that teach "survival tips during a recession"; ③ American internet users have also discovered that due to the surge in living costs in recent years, the "money-saving tips" from more than a decade ago may no longer be effective today.
Charting the Global Economy: U.S. Dollar Slide Evocative of Nixon
JPMorgan survey: The market widely predicts that the USA will fall into stagflation, and the dollar continues to weaken.
The survey released by JPMorgan on Friday shows that the market generally believes that the risk of stagflation in the USA over the next year is much higher than the risk of recession, while the most Bullish asset class for 2025 is Cash; Most respondents believe that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the most negatively impactful policy on the USA.
If Trump really wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, what should he do? Ruin employment!
Both Goldman Sachs and senior officials at the Federal Reserve point to the same key interest rate cut — the rapid rise in unemployment, rather than inflation, is the real signal that compels the Federal Reserve to take action.
