The oil market$United Sts Brent Oil Fd Lp Unit (BNO.US)$is currently experiencing a pronounced wave of pessimism, with bearish positioning reaching levels not seen since March 2020. This shift reflects growing concerns over macroeconomic uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and structural imbalances in supply and demand dynamics. The sentiment, as captured by investor surveys and positioning data, underscores heightened skepticism about the near-t...
Earnings Preview This week, investors should keep an eye on earnings reports from$Lennar Corp (LEN.US)$and$CarMax (KMX.US)$. Lennar earnings preview Lennar reveals earnings for the most recent quarter on June 17. 19 analysts forecast earnings of $3.23 per share as opposed to earnings of $3.01 in the same quarter of the previous year. Lennar is expected to report sales of $8.48 billion, an increase of 5.48% ove...
29th May 2024 (Wed) Daily Market Outlook Summary - What Is Happening In The Markets Riding on the "good news is bad news" sentiment now, US stock indices traded mixed overnight, with NASDAQ futures edging higher by only +0.46%. Consumer confidence index edged higher, showing that consumers are still generally optimistic regarding the state of the US economy. Further, last night's US 2-year treasury auction saw a weaker than expected auction causing the lat...
17th May 2024 (Fri) Daily Market Outlook Summary - What Is Happening In The Markets U.S equity markets took a breather and held steady overnight. S&P and NASDAQ futures index both dipped by -0.26%and -0.3% respectively. This was more due to the profit-taking moves by traders since the major indices made new highs. Unemployment claims data last night fell but not as much as the market expected, showing that we are still seeing some softness in th...
All Eyes on the Upcoming Fed Meeting With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday. Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year. If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
BelleWeather
:
I think proper portfolio positioning vis a vis inflation is important. The concern I have is stagflation, so I’m trying to be defensive to that. This is difficult. And timing the market is impossible and crazy-making, so I personally am taking each day as it comes. I don’t think anyone is going to sell off over these concerns, and Powell is not about to fan those flames either!
SpyderCall
OPBelleWeather
:
They might not sell over these concerns. But when these variables are present, then any negative catalyst will likely catalyze a selloff. For example, if we get bad rhetoric from Powell next week, then we might see extra volatility. That being said, in the current environment, any selloff will be a good buying opportunity until something breaks in the economy.
SpyderCall
OPBelleWeather
:
So far, wages and employment numbers have held up, so stagflation is not a concern until inflation picks back up. With the way oil and gasoline prices have been climbing, we could possibly see a stagflationary environment soon, but not yet. Things are almost perfect in the economic data currently. We are in a goldilocks zone for the Fed right now. And if things get worse, then the Fed has already mentioned cutting rates. That would be even more accomodative for equities as the "Fed Put" will be in play at that point. So, if we do see stagflation, it shouldn't last long as the Fed will accommodate markets when the inflation, wages, or employment situation changes negatively.
BelleWeather
:
Agreed on the Goldilocks zone vis a vis the Fed mandate save one issue - the reserve bank balance is almost out - won’t they have to move to correct that?
SpyderCall
OPBelleWeather
:
They have been greatly decreasing the balance sheet since march 2022. This is done through selling treasury bonds or mortgage securities. Short-term treasuries, like bills, have been the biggest culprits for the runoff of the balance sheet. This has been unwinding the massive amount of asset purchases since the 2008 financial crisis. They purchased all of these assets back then as a form of quantative easing to boost the economy. Right now, they are selling treasury notes at sky-high yields to provide liquidity to banks essentially. This is putting more liabilities onto the balance sheet, which brings the balance down. I don't think the balance sheet runoff is such a big deal at the moment. Once the economy is showing signs of trouble, then I think we will need to worry about the Fed balance sheet. If they start buying assets, essentially quantative easing, then they might think that there is weakness in the economy. You might think that with the Fed balance falling like it is, then long-term treasuries should be falling along with the balance. But that has not been the case since last November as these treasuries have been climbing. This tells me that the balance sheet is now falling because the Fed is adding liquidity through short-term bond sales, which inject liquidity into the economy, which is good for an economy and equities.
FOMC holds rates amid heightened uncertainty: Where will US stocks head next?
🎙️Discussion 1. With the Fed highlighting "elevated uncertainty", are you prioritizing rate projections or near-term economic data for ma Show More
Moo Live
Mar 20 02:25
FOMC Press Conference, March 19, 2025
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This section presents the top 5 stocks in U.S. Crypto Concept Stocks, ranked from highest to lowest based on real-time market data. Companies involved in the creation, trade, and services of digital forms of money.Displayed third-party logos, brands, or trademark images on screens or web pages are only for identification purposes and remain the property of their respective owners.Displayed third-party logos, brands, or trademark images on screens or web pages are only for identification purposes and remain the property of their respective owners. Information is provided by Futu and is a non-exhaustive list of all thematic stocks for reference purposes only.
This section presents the top 5 stocks in U.S. Crypto Concept Stocks, ranked from highest to lowest based on real-time market data.
This week, investors should keep an eye on earnings reports from $Lennar Corp (LEN.US)$ and $CarMax (KMX.US)$.
Lennar earnings preview
Lennar reveals earnings for the most recent quarter on June 17.
19 analysts forecast earnings of $3.23 per share as opposed to earnings of $3.01 in the same quarter of the previous year.
Lennar is expected to report sales of $8.48 billion, an increase of 5.48% ove...
Summary - What Is Happening In The Markets
Riding on the "good news is bad news" sentiment now, US stock indices traded mixed overnight, with NASDAQ futures edging higher by only +0.46%. Consumer confidence index edged higher, showing that consumers are still generally optimistic regarding the state of the US economy. Further, last night's US 2-year treasury auction saw a weaker than expected auction causing the lat...
Summary - What Is Happening In The Markets
U.S equity markets took a breather and held steady overnight. S&P and NASDAQ futures index both dipped by -0.26%and -0.3% respectively. This was more due to the profit-taking moves by traders since the major indices made new highs. Unemployment claims data last night fell but not as much as the market expected, showing that we are still seeing some softness in th...
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.21%
- S&P 500 Index: -0.02%
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.29%
- 10-year US Treasury yield: -1.18 basis points, at 4.4845%
- 2-year US Treasury yield: -0.64 basis points, at 4.8591%
- WTI June Crude Oil Futures: +$0.86, +1.10%, at $79.12/barrel
- Brent July Crude Oil Futures: +$0.57, +0.69%, at $82.79/barrel
- COMEX Gold Futures: -1.04%, at $2369.1/ounce
- LME Tin and Zinc: +~2.3%
- LME Copper, Lead, and Nickel: +~1%
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Crude Oil Futures(JUN5) (CLmain.US)$ $Brent Last Day Financial Futures(JUN5) (BZmain.US)$ $United Sts Brent Oil Fd Lp Unit (BNO.US)$ $Cboe/COMEX Gold Volatility Index (.GVX.US)$
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With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday.
Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year.
If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
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