Is It Time to Buy U.S. Treasuries on the Dip?

Moomoo News GlobalApr 25 02:52 ET

Trump's 'war' with the Federal Reserve has permanently damaged the credit of U.S. bonds.

Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led investors to intensify the selling of U.S. Treasuries, questioning the credibility of Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. Analysts point out that if the Federal Reserve shifts to a more lenient stance on inflation as Trump desires, or if Trump prematurely nominates a 'shadow chairman' to intervene in monetary policy, the Treasury market will decline further.

wallstreetcnApr 25 02:24 ET

New Federal Reserve News Agency: Trump has made it "harder" for the next Federal Reserve chairman.

The market worries that Trump's public belittling and pressure on Powell will leave an indelible "original sin" for Powell's successor. Regardless of who the next chairman is, the independence of the Federal Reserve will be in question. An independent central bank is often seen as more objective and professional, making its decisions more likely to guide market expectations and stabilize the economy. Since President Clinton's era, most U.S. presidents have adopted a stance of "non-interference" with the Federal Reserve.

wallstreetcnApr 24 23:20 ET

The U.S. Treasury's 7-year bond auction was lackluster, with the problem still lying in overseas demand.

The portion of indirect bids representing overseas demand only secured 59.3% of the total allocation, down from March's 61.2%, marking the lowest level since December 2021. This marks the second consecutive auction of the 7-year bond to experience a tail. Analysts say that if foreign demand really collapses, the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to intervene and start monetizing these government bonds.

wallstreetcnApr 24 16:01 ET

Citadel CEO Griffin: Trump's trade war has become "meaningless", damaging the USA's Assets brand and making Americans poorer.

Griffin believes that Trump's actions have tarnished the once "unparalleled" excellent reputation of USA Assets, including US Treasury bonds, the strength of the US dollar, and national creditworthiness. His tariff policies have failed to bring manufacturing back to the USA and have instead made the USA "20% poorer all around," making the trade war "meaningless" and producing no winners.

wallstreetcnApr 23 22:00 ET

Bond giant PIMCO is "shorting": underweighting the dollar!

Investors are increasingly turning to "home country Assets."

wallstreetcnApr 23 21:51 ET

The founder of Castle Invest warns Trump: Do not tarnish the reputation of USA national debt.

① Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of Castle Investment, stated on Wednesday that the Global trade dispute initiated by President Trump is damaging the national image of the USA and the reputation of the USA bond market; ② Griffin pointed out that the credit value of USA Treasury bonds was once unmatched, but now we are putting this prestigious label at risk.

cls.cnApr 23 20:50 ET

The USA Treasury's 5-year bond auction remained stable, overseas demand decreased, but did not collapse.

On Wednesday local time, the USA Treasury auctioned 70 billion dollars of 5-year government bonds. Following the disappointing auction of 2-year US bonds yesterday and a significant drop in overseas demand, the market is concerned that the 5-year US bond auction on Wednesday will also face a lukewarm response, particularly worrying about the demand from overseas buyers.

wallstreetcnApr 23 14:40 ET

More and more evidence is emerging: foreign investors sold off U.S. Treasury bonds in large quantities in April.

① Increasing evidence suggests that as the tariff war initiated by USA President Trump continues to escalate, concerns about foreign investors accelerating the selling of US Treasury bonds may have indeed become a reality in April; ② The latest auction of 2-year US Treasuries conducted on Tuesday also shows a lack of demand from overseas investors.

cls.cnApr 22 21:24 ET

The collapse of the USA's "soft" data continues, with the Richmond Federal Reserve's manufacturing new Order expectations hitting a record low.

On Tuesday, the two pieces of "soft data" released by the USA performed poorly, continuing the trend of the previous collapse of several soft data.

wallstreetcnApr 22 17:18 ET

Buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds have started to "strike": the overseas demand for 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds has reached a two-year low.

On Tuesday local time, the USA Treasury auctioned 69 billion dollars of two-year government bonds, with the final winning yield rate at 3.795%, the lowest level since last September, down from 3.984% on March 25.

wallstreetcnApr 22 16:18 ET

Is it true that the Japanese are the ones buying U.S. bonds? In the first two weeks of April, Japanese Institutions sold over 20 billion dollars in foreign debt, setting a new record high in 20 years!

According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance of Japan, in the week ending April 4, private institutions, including Banks and Retirement Funds, sold long-term foreign Bonds worth 17.5 billion USD, followed by another sale of 3.6 billion USD in the following week. Nomura believes that "a significant portion of the sales may be US Treasury Bonds or US agency Bonds."

wallstreetcnApr 22 01:59 ET

The impact of Trump's tariffs on the "USA exceptionalism"! Morgan Stanley: Funds are flowing from the USA to Europe and Japan.

① Vishal Khanduja, head of broad market Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley, stated that the long-term US Treasury has fallen, and the exceptionalism of the USA is under threat, with Capital Trend moving towards Europe, Japan, and Gold; ② Khanduja believes that the USA needs to present a clear and sustainable deficit reduction plan in order to maintain its safe-haven status.

cls.cnApr 21 23:24 ET

The real Trump 2.0 Trade: Selling off the USA!

Media analysis suggests that Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve are further pushing the world away from the USA's dominant path, as governments and investors are losing confidence in the dollar and US government bonds.

wallstreetcnApr 21 17:36 ET

New evidence suggests that the USA real estate market is cooling: sales in Miami have plunged, demand has dropped significantly, and inventory has soared.

The Miami Real Estate market is facing a significant drop in demand and considerable downside risks. According to Reventure Consulting, Miami's home sales have fallen by 50% compared to the pandemic peak, and inventory has surged to 0.051 million units, reaching the second highest level in March's history.

wallstreetcnApr 21 15:59 ET

The trade war and the crisis at the Federal Reserve coincide, leading to a collective decline in the three major U.S. stock index futures | Highlights for tonight.

① In the first quarter, Tesla's sales in Europe plummeted across the board, with declines exceeding 50% in markets like Germany; ② Before Trump's tariffs, Zuckerberg sold Stocks for over 5 billion yuan; ③ POSCO will participate in Hyundai Steel's $5.8 billion factory project in the United States.

cls.cnApr 21 08:46 ET

After Trump took office, he continuously "withdrew from groups". Will the next one be the IMF?

Analysis suggests that if the USA withdraws from the IMF, it would be a "massive economic, financial, and political mistake." The USA would lose all influence over the organization's policies and operations. More seriously, this would significantly weaken the international status of the dollar.

wallstreetcnApr 21 04:46 ET

Trump's trade war is destroying the USA's "financial hegemony."

Analysis indicates that the volatility in the US Treasury market and the unexpected weakness of the dollar suggest that confidence in the safety of US Treasury securities or the attractiveness of dollar Assets is beginning to waver. The initial trade conflict may evolve into a more dangerous "capital war," weakening the USA's financial hegemony that has lasted for more than half a century.

wallstreetcnApr 21 01:51 ET

Will it rise or not?

Caitong believes that whether or not the LPR is lowered, it may not necessarily drive interest rates to immediately break their previous lows. After all, the market has to navigate the trade-offs between the Sino-U.S. trade friction, the strength of a package of incremental policies, and the choice of monetary policy, with the combination of the three being dynamic and full of uncertainty.

wallstreetcnApr 20 20:31 ET

Bad news for U.S. debt! The first major life insurance company in Japan announces its annual investment plan: aggressively purchasing Japan's ultra-long bonds while considering reducing foreign debt.

Fuguo Life Insurance is the first major life insurance company to announce such an investment plan this fiscal year. According to the Japan Life Insurance Association, the total investment assets of these life insurance companies amount to approximately 390 trillion yen (about 2.7 trillion dollars), and their investment decisions can significantly impact the direction of the Global market.

wallstreetcnApr 19 05:25 ET