No Data
The USA's consumer confidence continued to deteriorate in April: tariffs may trigger an economic recession, and inflation expectations have surged significantly.
① The USA Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to one of its lowest levels on record, declining for the fourth consecutive month, marking the fourth lowest data since the end of the 1970s; ② Consumers expect their income growth to slow down over the next year. Economists warn that businesses will pass on tariffs and CSI Commodity Equity Index costs to consumers, who will face more financial pain.
As the Global economy enters a new round of tariff battles, the probability of a recession in the USA is equivalent to "flipping a coin".
Economists expect that the new round of Global trade war makes the USA's economic recession almost a "coin toss" game — the probability of recession rises to 45%.
Market expectations for a rate cut in June have risen to 58%. U.S. stocks continue to rebound, and BTC ETF has seen a net inflow of 2.76 billion dollars for five consecutive days.
The expectation of a shift in Federal Reserve policy has become a core driving factor in the market. As the 'Fed's mouthpiece' disclosed details of Trump's pressure on Powell and several Fed officials publicly supported a rate cut in June, the consensus in the market regarding the turning point in MMF policy has gradually strengthened.
BofA's Hartnett Warns Sell the Rebound in US Stocks, Dollar
Deutsche Bank warns: The US dollar is facing a crisis of confidence and may fall into a structural decline.
① Deutsche Bank warns that in the next few years, the dollar will fall into a structural downtrend, and the Exchange Rates against the euro may drop to their lowest level in over a decade; ② The USA's tariff policies and increased uncertainty have raised investors' doubts about the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, leading to a wave of selling of the dollar.
Trump's 'war' with the Federal Reserve has permanently damaged the credit of U.S. bonds.
Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led investors to intensify the selling of U.S. Treasuries, questioning the credibility of Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. Analysts point out that if the Federal Reserve shifts to a more lenient stance on inflation as Trump desires, or if Trump prematurely nominates a 'shadow chairman' to intervene in monetary policy, the Treasury market will decline further.
