Gold has come to a sudden stop, long positions have drastically decreased, and analysts warn that the trend has diverged from the fundamentals.
Barclays strategist Stefano Pascale stated that the surge in Gold Call Options after Trump's tariffs, leading to an inverted skew indicator, coupled with a sharp reduction in hedge fund long positions and the recent pullback in Gold prices, are all reasons to adopt a cautious outlook on Gold prices in the short term. The movement of Gold has already "decoupled" from the "fundamental drivers" such as the US dollar and real interest rates.
The gold-silver ratio has rarely broken 100! Silver is expected to welcome a valuation repair window.
As of April 21, 2025, the price ratio of Gold to Silver (hereinafter referred to as the gold-silver ratio) has risen to 105.26, well above the historical average of 50 to 80. A gold-silver ratio over 100 signifies extreme pricing in light of stagflation risks and indicates that the window for Silver valuation recovery is gradually opening.
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Is a quick pullback in Gold a good opportunity to build a position? The fund manager bluntly stated: It is much more reliable than the US stock market!
①This week, gold prices in Shanghai fell after rising for seven consecutive weeks, with international gold prices dropping from a historic high of $3,509.9 per ounce to around $3,300; ②Some Fund managers suggest that investors take advantage of the pullback to gradually build up gold positions, emphasizing that gold has significant upside potential in the long term; ③It was pointed out that global financial market issues have already involved sovereignty, and the only way to resolve sovereign risk may be through physical gold.
How to understand the adjustment of Gold in this round?
Deutsche Bank stated that the recent decline in Gold is mainly due to the rebound of the dollar and the market's overinterpretation of tariff news. The tariff issues in the USA have not yet been resolved, and there remains significant uncertainty about the outlook, therefore the extent of the Gold pullback is limited.
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