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The non-farm payrolls are coming in strong! If cracks begin to show in the USA labor market, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in June is expected to increase significantly.
The shadow of tariffs looms over the USA economy, with top Wall Street investment institution Apollo Global Management warning that Friday's non-farm report may highlight signs of weakness in the labor market.
After the record trade deficit in March for Commodities, Wall Street has determined that GDP in the USA will shrink in the first quarter.
The rush by companies to import before tariffs caused the USA's trade deficit to soar to a historic high in March, which is expected to significantly drag down first-quarter economic growth. Morgan Stanley has drastically lowered its first-quarter GDP forecast for the USA from zero growth to a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, Goldman Sachs reduced its forecast from -0.2% to -0.8%, and JPMorgan adjusted its estimate from zero to -1.75%.
Under the threat of tariffs, the USA's commodity trade deficit hits a historical record! The first quarter GDP is likely to face a severe setback.
Due to companies importing Commodities in large quantities to avoid tariff costs, the USA's trade deficit in Commodities expanded to a record 162 billion dollars in March.
Trump has criticized Powell again, this time without naming him.
A week after claiming he had no intention of firing Powell, Trump again publicly criticized the Federal Reserve, stating, "We have a Federal Reserve that is not performing well," and believes he understands interest rates "better than he does."
March Job Openings Drop as Markets Await Nonfarm Payrolls Data
Tariffs have sparked widespread public dissatisfaction, forcing Trump to step out of his "comfort zone" and face voters directly.
① As various opinion polls show a rapid decline in Trump's approval ratings, the president of the USA has also ended the behavior pattern of the past three months; ② According to the schedule, he will travel to Michigan for a rally on Tuesday and deliver two graduation speeches in May.